Kamala Harris Leads Donald Trump in Republican Poll Breakthrough

Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in a poll conducted by a Republican-leaning organization.
The survey from Echelon Insights, which was cofounded by former Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini and pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson, found that Harris is 7 points ahead of Trump in a head-to-head matchup, on 52 percent to his 45 percent.
Among those polled, 37 percent said they would “definitely” vote for Trump, while 45 percent said the same for Harris. Meanwhile, 8 percent said they were “leaning” towards Trump or would “probably” vote for him, and 7 percent said the same for Harris and 3 percent of voters were unsure.
When third-party candidates were included, Harris’ lead decreased to 5 points, with 49 percent of likely voters supporting her compared to 44 percent for Trump.
The poll surveyed 1,005 likely voters between September 23 and 25 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. Newsweek has contacted the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email.
While it marks the first time Echelon Insights has given Harris the lead, the pollster had only done one prior survey in August and Trump was ahead by 1 point among likely voters.
Since President Joe Biden ended his reelection campaign and Harris became the candidate, polls have looked positive for the vice president, though they have remained close, with support shifting between the Democratic and Republican candidates.
The most recent Outward Intelligence poll, conducted between September 22 and 26, put Harris 6 points ahead nationally among 1,735 likely voters.
Another poll conducted the week before by Quinnipiac University showed that Trump was 1 point ahead when third party candidates were included, while the two candidates were tied among 1,728 likely voters in a head-to-head matchup. Other polls, including a New York Times/Siena College survey have also given Trump a 1-point lead.
Nonetheless, Harris has maintained a lead in most national polls.
Overall, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker shows that Harris is 2.7 points ahead of Trump, on 48.5 percent to his 45.8 percent as of Friday midday.
Pollster Nate Silver’s survey also puts Harris in the lead by 2.8 points, while RealClearPolitics gives Harris a 2-point lead.
Although the vice president may be on track to win the popular vote, it is less certain that she will win the Electoral College.
In his newsletter, Silver wrote that his model showed the Electoral College is a toss up.
“As of Thursday, our forecast is that Kamala Harris is a 3:1 favorite in the popular vote — but the Electoral College is basically still a toss-up. That’s because the model figures there’s a 20 percent chance that Harris wins the popular but loses the Electoral College, but only a 0.3 percent chance of the same thing happening to Donald Trump,” he wrote.
In early September, Silver’s model had predicted that Trump had more than 60 percent chance of winning the Electoral College.
FiveThirtyEight’s model currently shows Harris is predicted to win the popular vote and the Electoral College with 286 votes to Trump’s 252.
But the election will ultimately come down to what happens in the seven swing states, which are currently very close.
FiveThirtyEight’s model as well as Nate Silver’s model show that Harris is predicted to win in four swing states—Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—while Trump is predicted to win in Georgia, North Carolina and Arizona. Both candidates are leading by very slim margins of between 1 and 3 points in the swing states.
“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” FiveThirtyEight wrote on its website.